MARKET PROFILE AND SAR 11/10/15

Hello Folks,
This is MarketMentals back to blog about the latest trends and scopes of the Index Nifty and BankNifty with an ultimately renewed and refreshed view on the markets.

NIFTY FUTURE

OPEN =  8207.7    GAP UP = 49.9 Pts
HIGH = 8248.8
LOW = 8153.15
CLOSE = 8195
PERCENTAGE = +0.5%

MMSAR.D = 8110.88

MMSAR.H = 8201.37

MARKET PROFILE - NIFTY

After a trending move from 7705 on 29/9/15, the market started consolidating after touching a high of 8190-8204 on 6/10/15 and 7/10/15 respectively. The market has been in a range bound move of about 80pts for 4 days between 8200 and 8120 before trying to breakout of the RB and making a new high of 8248.8 with moderate volume on 9/10/15. Market opened on a positive note with a gap up of 49.9pts. With no buyers on breakout to welcome the new price discovery, the market kept went lower in a slow manner in hopes of finding buyers, The selling pressure came when the index broke the POC level of 8212 and ultimately found buyer interest near yday close and vpoc 8150 and was immediately pushed above YVAH at 8165.53. The market in its last hour made an attempt to reach L.IB level of 8207.7 and ultimately closed after touching the POC of 8212 at 8195.

POSSIBLE TRADING SCENE:
Market shall be strong above 8212 and might make an attempt to surpass the previous high oh 8248 and fill the gap at 8358. On the down side below, 8212 it might attempt to test the lower end of the range at 8129-8120 and might retest below to see any potential initiative sellers.

FIBO, EW AND PATTERN - NIFTY

From the high on 9191 to the low of 7549, nifty has made a 3 wave and retraced above 38.2% at 8175.
1> The Wave C was from 8669 - 7549, is retraced by 61.8% at 8240. In case of a ABC we can consider an upmove till about 8562+ to make a X. The current move from 7549 is of 3 waves, with W.3 making 100% of W.1 and the extension at 123.8% coming at 8340 (closing the gap). A retracement of W.4 by 23.6 % will be 8200. A W.5 equal to W.1 would give a target of 8696, which is coincidentally the TARGET FOR WW+ from 9191 to 7549

2> In case of a 5 wave move down, we can mark the recent high at 8248 to be W.4 which is the 61.8% retracement of W.3 and expect a much larger fall. Also, a WW- is in formation whose Targets are coincidentally similar to the W.5 at the low of 7489.

POSSIBLE TRADING SCENE:
Overall, Nifty is bullish above 8200 and bearish below 8105.

Nifty OI February 28th

Nifty OI February 27th

Nifty OI February 24th

Nifty OI February 23rd

Prices close twice below 5 DEMA for two days. RSI falls below 70. K triggered D already and now below 80, with a sharp dive. MACD crosses signal line. Price closes below 5 and 10 DEMA. Daily Regression study reveals a good resistance @5612 levels and RSI intersection with a 15 DMA proves to be vital. Andrews pitchfork may provide some support @ its median line. A 38.2% retracement @5211 can be expected for this super-hero activity by nifty from 4536 to 5628, a 1092 point movement in 45 trading days. The trend channel has been broken too.  If I havent lost my sanity, then I derive that a 38.2% retracement which is a near 420 point fall may be achieved in around 18 trading days by March 20. Areas of support would be  5425-5360-5300-5245-5200

Nifty Kids Technicals

In this hourly pattern, there is a formation of a cup and handle. making a low of 4640 and forming a round bottom to make a high (@5108 pre-market) @5099. The formation of a handle is due, which will be a flag and would retrace 1/3rd of the advancement of the cup.
Advancement of cup = 5108-4640 = 468.
So, the retracement should be upto ~4940

The above hourly pattern can be justified if we look at a slightly bigger picture at the weekly's. The marked candle gives us the value of a recent historical instance, where a big bullish candle formed as a ST trend reversal is followed by bearish candle travelling half the advancement of the previous green candle. If I consider this, then the candle of the week ending 2nd Dec traveled 343 pts (4734 - 5077).
Thus, the following candle should travel 172 pts (5108 - *4936)

So, I got two theoretical confirmation for now. Looking at the daily charts, the price action pierced the lower bottom of the BB and gradually the trend reversed after being in an oversold condition for long. In its effort to go green, nifty got intermediately resisted at the middle band and then suddenly flew with a huge gap up. And, though just two years in the market, with advice from seniors and as my paanwala who is also an investor once said "agar upar jaata hai, toh neeche toh aana hai" every exhaustive super run needs some cooling off, a pullback. So, I deduce that this rise may correct until it gets a support on the middleband of BB @4931

Finally, a 15 min count shows me the picture of the lower band of BB pierced. Also, a fast fall setup can be seen. Also, nifty being made double top on this chart, a swift fall is possible. A good support is seen around @4930, again (check the bottoms of 1st and 2nd Dec)

Nifty OI July 15th