Stock Market - A Maze for Big Brains!

Thursday, 8 December 2011

Nifty Kids Technicals


In this hourly pattern, there is a formation of a cup and handle. making a low of 4640 and forming a round bottom to make a high (@5108 pre-market) @5099. The formation of a handle is due, which will be a flag and would retrace 1/3rd of the advancement of the cup.
Advancement of cup = 5108-4640 = 468.

So, the retrace
ment should be upto ~4940

The above hourly pattern can be justified if we look at a slightly bigger picture at the weekly's. The marked candle gives us the value of a recent historical instance, where a big bullish candle formed as a ST trend reversal is followed by bearish candle travelling half the advancement of the previous green candle. If I consider this, then the candle of the week ending 2nd Dec traveled 343 pts (4734 - 5077).
Thus, the following candle should travel 172 pts (5108 - *4936)




So, I got two theoretical confirmation for now. Looking at the daily charts, the price action pierced the lower bottom of the BB and gradually the trend reversed after being in an oversold condition for long. In its effort to go green, nifty got intermediately resisted at the middle band and then suddenly flew with a huge gap up. And, though just two years in the market, with advice from seniors and as my paanwala who is also an investor once said "agar upar jaata hai, toh neeche toh aana hai" every exhaustive super run needs some cooling off, a pullback.
So, I deduce that this rise may correct until it gets a support on the middleband of BB @4931


Finally, a 15 min count shows me the picture of the lower band of BB pierced. Also, a fast fall setup can be seen. Also, nifty being made double top on this chart, a swift fall is possible. A good support is seen around @4930, again (check the bottoms of 1st and 2nd Dec)

2 comments:

  1. Beautiful analysis...technical made easy...even a kid can understand it...

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  2. Hey thanks ya sreyo. Certainly a kid can understand, after all its from a kid :P

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